MIAMI, FL (352today.com/AP) — UPDATE: As of 11:15 a.m. EDT, on Sunday, Aug. 27, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says Tropical Depression Ten has strengthened into Tropical Storm Idalia. Based on observations from National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hurricane Hunter aircraft the maximum winds are estimated to be 40 mph with higher gusts.
ORIGINAL: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says a weather system off the coast of Mexico is expected to become a tropical storm by Sunday.
The NHC releases updated forecasts every six hours. As of the 5 a.m. EDT forecast on Sunday, Aug. 27, the NHC said most of the satellite estimates had the system just shy of tropical storm strength.
Both Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft will fly into the system later Sunday morning to get a better look at the structure and winds.
NHC FORECAST
The NHC’s forecast discussion says, “The overnight model guidance is a bit farther west and slower than the last cycle, probably due to the depression being further south than anticipated… These are small changes overall, and the track should be considered lower confidence until it starts moving in a more consistent manner.”
The NHC meteorologists say the very warm and deep waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico will likely give the system fuel to strengthen over the next few days. “There’s a notable risk of rapid intensification while the system moves across the record warm eastern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico,” said the NHC.
The latest NHC forecast calls for tropical storm force winds of at least 39 mph reaching the 352 by Tuesday morning.
STATE OF EMERGENCY
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency Saturday for most of the state’s Gulf coast as the weather system strengthens as it moves northward across the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center warned Saturday that the system could produce dangerous storm surge, heavy rain and strong winds to Florida’s Gulf coast and Panhandle by midweek.
DeSantis’ declaration covers the Gulf coast from the southwestern city of Fort Myers north through Panama City in the Panhandle. Thirty-three of the state’s 67 counties are covered in the declaration.
The hurricane center says there’s a 70% chance the system will become a tropical storm by Monday and a 90% chance overall.
Currently, it would be named “Idalia” if no other tropical storm forms before it. Forecast models do not show the storm’s center approaching the areas of southwest Florida where deadly Hurricane Ian struck last year.
DeSantis said in a statement that he issued his executive order “out of an abundance of caution to ensure that the Florida Division of Emergency Management can begin staging resources and Floridians have plenty of time to prepare their families for a storm next week.”
“I encourage Floridians to have a plan in place and ensure that their hurricane supply kit is stocked,” he said.
RELATED: Hurricane prep supplies sold tax-free this weekend, until Sept. 8
Forecast models have the storm curving to the northeast toward Florida, coming ashore along the Gulf coast north of Tampa near the Big Bend area and then heading diagonally across the state to emerge again in the Atlantic Ocean near southeast Georgia.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently said the 2023 hurricane season would be far busier than initially forecast, partly because of extremely warm ocean temperatures. The season runs through Nov. 30, with August and September typically the peak.