ATLANTA, GA (352today.com) — After enduring the wrath of Hurricanes Debby, Milton, and Helene in 2024, those living in the 352 are being urged to brace once again. Federal forecasters say the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season could be even more active.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting an above-normal season fueled by warm ocean waters, favorable wind conditions, and an active West African monsoon.
Season Outlook
NOAA’s National Weather Service predicts:
- 13 to 19 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)
- 6 to 10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher)
- 3 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)
- 70% confidence in forecasted ranges
- 60% chance of an above-normal season
- 30% chance of a near-normal season
- 10% chance of a below-normal season
Driving Forces Behind the Forecast
This year’s elevated outlook is influenced by several overlapping conditions:
- ENSO-neutral phase in the Pacific, reducing atmospheric disruption of Atlantic storms
- Warmer-than-average ocean temperatures that can fuel storm intensity
- Weak wind shear, allowing storms to grow stronger
- Active West African Monsoon, a common starting point for long-lived tropical systems
- Continued high-activity era in the Atlantic basin
“The impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities,” said Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm, referencing widespread inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby last season. “NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings.”
A Call to Prepare
Federal officials emphasized that this forecast should serve as a warning, not just a projection.
“In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place,” said NWS Director Ken Graham. “This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens.”
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick echoed the urgency, highlighting NOAA’s use of “the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems.”